Conspiracy Theory Life and Politics: Fear and Joy

Conspiracy theories have always existed, but we now live in world with more conspiracy theory believers and faster conspiracy theory spread than ever before. We know some of the reasons. Social media spread credible lies fast, even faster than they spread facts. Conspiracy theories are very effective political tools that can be used by dictators to influence uneducated voters in other nations. But it is not just the internet and politics – more is at play.

To find out, we set out to examine the spread of conspiracy theories related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main questions were what made individuals start propagating conspiracy theories and whether they would get stuck in a conspiracy theory mindset or would move on. We used data from Twitter, which was a hotbed for conspiracy theories even before it became Xified. Our evidence was solid and not very encouraging.

First, we noted that many of the conspiracy theory spreaders were not regular people, but instead were bots programmed to manipulate others. This is normal in social media, and we used a strong tool for separating those from actual humans. Next, we found that regular people were driven by fear – the greater the threat from COVID-19, the more conspiracy theories they spouted. That included conspiracy theories saying that there was no such thing as COVID-19, it was all a lie. Believing in such a conspiracy theory and acting on it is exactly wrong when the infection rate is high. We are confident that this conspiracy theory killed people.

Equally disturbing, people were encouraged to continue propagating new conspiracy theories, or the same, by seeing their statements retweeted by others. In other words, the joy of seeing one’s conspiracy theory of COVID-19 becoming popular among others drove people towards more conspiracy theorizing.

It also drove them towards a variety of conspiracy theories, including some theories that cannot both be true. COVID-19 cannot both be a lie designed to keep people at home and a bioweapon designed by China, but the same people said both of these, often within a week of each other. It is true that they generally preferred similar conspiracy theories (see the graph above), but inconsistent conspiracy theories by the same people is a deeply troubling behavior.

In our data, conspiracy theories look like a form of reality denial. If the world presents people with information – real information – that is troubling to them, they can escape into conspiracy theories.

This should concern us greatly because there are many sources of fear, and many ways of manipulating conspiracy theories, including political reasons. For example, does the US have an affordability problem? Let’s find a conspiracy theory explaining it. And the conspiracy theory will distract people from addressing the problem, allowing it to persist.

Greve HR, Rao H, Vicinanza P, Zhou EY. 2022. Online Conspiracy Groups: Micro-Bloggers, Bots, and Coronavirus Conspiracy Talk on Twitter. American Sociological Review 87(6): 919–948.