You probably know someone who owns an Apple Watch, or maybe
you own one yourself. Is it a creative idea? Well, the multi-function watch was
creative the first time it appeared in Science Fiction writing, but that was
long time ago. Technologically a watch with the Apple Watch functionality has
been possible for a while too, but firms have waited because they were unsure
if it could become a success. If fewer and fewer people wear watches, because
smartphones do the same job and much more, why make a watch? In fact, the
potential for success of Apple Watch was in dispute as soon as it was launched,
and it is still not settled. This is an issue that surfaces again and again –
firms need to estimate the potential success of ideas, both creative ones and
more conventional ones.
In a forthcoming paper in Administrative Science Quarterly, Justin Berg looks at that
question through a new lens: who makes the best estimate? Is it managers (who
make the decision), creators (who come with ideas), or people generally (who
could be customers)? The question is important because it reflects an ongoing
tension in firms. Creatives think that managers don’t have the right kind of
thinking to appreciate their work, and managers think that creatives are poor
decision makers, especially when evaluating their own work. Theoretically the
key difference is between the divergent thinking that underlies creativity, and
the convergent thinking that underlies analysis and decision making.
What kind of thinking fits what kind of task is a good topic
for discussion over drinks, but we won’t know the answer without studying it,
as Berg did. To make sure the creative content was easy to evaluate, he used proposed
circus acts, and drew creators and managers from the industry (yes, of course
there is a circus industry). The answers
are easy to summarize, and important too.
The creators are right: They are much better at assessing
creative success than managers are. In fact, managers could be the worst, with
laypeople doing better in one measure of assessment accuracy.
The managers are right too: Creators are bad at assessing
the success of their own work (you get no points for guessing that they
over-estimate it). Even more interesting, a creator with a strong past success
is especially bad at assessing, probably because of overconfidence. This gives
a good rule of thumb for those who will become managers at some point: If a
creator says, “I know product idea this will success/fail because [insert own
success story here]”, you know exactly who to ignore. But the other rule of
thumb is to ignore yourself. Have the creators assess each other’s ideas, or
you can’t do that, use laypeople.